[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT31 KNHC 020603
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  33A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM AST THU SEP 02 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES BATTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE BAHAMAS AND
FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.  SOME OR ALL OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY BE
UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING THURSDAY MORNING. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF SEVERE HURRICANE FRANCES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  72.5 WEST OR ABOUT
35 MILES...55 KM...NORTHEAST OF MAYAGUANA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.
THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 555 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALM BEACH FLORIDA.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE LARGE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL BE
MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING...AND NEAR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FRANCES REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.  REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
NEAR 145 MPH...235 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  80 MILES...130 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS  937 MB...27.67 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE EYE OF FRANCES ON THE WEST SIDE OF ELEUTHRA ISLAND...AND
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.  STORM SURGE FLOODING OF
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...22.7 N... 72.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 937 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN


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