[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT31 KNHC 020244
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST WED SEP 01 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES BATTERING THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR FLORIDA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE BAHAMAS AND
FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.  SOME OR ALL OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING THURSDAY MORNING. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF SEVERE HURRICANE FRANCES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  72.0 WEST OR ABOUT
60 MILES...95 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS
IS ALSO ABOUT 585 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALM BEACH FLORIDA.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE LARGE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL BE
MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FRANCES REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 140 MPH...220 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BASED ON RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT.  FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  80 MILES...130 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.  DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...GRAND TURK
ISLAND REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 72 MPH...115 KM/HR...AS THE EYE
OF FRANCES PASSED TO THE NORTHWEST.  HAM RADIO REPORTS INDICATE THAT
DAMAGE TO TREES AND ROOFS HAS OCCURRED ON THE ISLAND.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT REPORTS IS  939 MB...27.73 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE EYE OF FRANCES ON THE WEST SIDE OF ELEUTHRA ISLAND...AND
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.  STORM SURGE FLOODING OF
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...22.6 N... 72.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART


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