[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 011446
SPFAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED SEP 01 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  69.8 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM AST SAT SEP  4 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

24.0N  74.0W      47  X  X  X 47   DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  3 13 16
25.0N  76.0W      15 18  X  X 33   JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X 13 13
26.0N  77.5W       X 22  3  1 26   SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  9  9
MUCM 214N 779W     X  2  1  1  4   CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  7  7
MUCF 221N 805W     X  X  2  3  5   MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  5  5
MUHA 230N 824W     X  X  1  4  5   WILMINGTON NC      X  X  X  3  3
MBJT 215N 712W    48  X  X  X 48   KEY WEST FL        X  X  4  7 11
MYMM 224N 730W    48  X  X  X 48   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  6  9 15
MYSM 241N 745W    43  X  X  X 43   FT MYERS FL        X  X  5 10 15
MYEG 235N 758W    24  5  X  X 29   VENICE FL          X  X  2 12 14
MYAK 241N 776W     2 19  1  1 23   TAMPA FL           X  X  2 12 14
MYNN 251N 775W     1 23  2  X 26   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  X 12 12
MYGF 266N 787W     X  8 12  3 23   ST MARKS FL        X  X  X  8  8
MARATHON FL        X  1  7  5 13   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  X  6  6
MIAMI FL           X  2 11  5 18   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  X  5  5
W PALM BEACH FL    X  1 13  6 20   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X  2  2
FT PIERCE FL       X  X 11  8 19   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  X  7  7
COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  8 10 18   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8AM THU TO  8PM THU
C FROM  8PM THU TO  8AM FRI
D FROM  8AM FRI TO  8AM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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