[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT31 KNHC 011445
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED SEP 01 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES HEADING FOR THE BAHAMAS...WINDS
INCREASING AT GRAND TURK...

AT 11 AM...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WHICH INCLUDES...
CAT...EXUMAS...LONG ISLANDS...RUM CAY AND SAN SALVADOR AND A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WHICH INCLUDES
THE ABACOS...ANDROS...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND
BAHAMA AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...WHICH INCLUDES ACKLINS...CROOKED...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA
AND RAGGED ISLANDS...AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THE NORTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA GORDA WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO BAY.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  69.8 WEST OR ABOUT  85 MILES...
135 KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND AND 735 MILES...1180 KM...EAST
-SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR.
THE GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. FRANCES IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  WHILE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FRANCES COULD STILL
INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE BEFORE REACHING THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  80 MILES...130 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. GRAND TURK REPORTED WINDS OF 36 MPH...57
KM/HR EARLIER TODAY.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE
EARLIER TODAY WAS 937 MB...27.67 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA...AND SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES WILL BEGIN AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...21.7 N... 69.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 937 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

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