[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 010832
SPFAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST WED SEP 01 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  68.5 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM AST SAT SEP  4 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

23.2N  72.9W      46  X  X  X 46   DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  1 14 15
24.3N  74.8W      15 18  X  X 33   JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X 12 12
25.5N  76.6W       X 20  7  1 28   SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  8  8
MUCM 214N 779W     X  1  1  3  5   CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  6  6
MUCF 221N 805W     X  X  1  4  5   MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  4  4
MUHA 230N 824W     X  X  X  4  4   WILMINGTON NC      X  X  X  2  2
MBJT 215N 712W    49  X  X  X 49   KEY WEST FL        X  X  2  8 10
MYMM 224N 730W    41  X  X  X 41   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  3 11 14
MYSM 241N 745W    23 12  X  X 35   FT MYERS FL        X  X  2 12 14
MYEG 235N 758W     7 18  1  X 26   VENICE FL          X  X  1 12 13
MYAK 241N 776W     X 13  7  1 21   TAMPA FL           X  X  X 13 13
MYNN 251N 775W     X 13 10  2 25   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  X 11 11
MYGF 266N 787W     X  1 17  4 22   ST MARKS FL        X  X  X  7  7
MARATHON FL        X  X  4  8 12   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  X  5  5
MIAMI FL           X  X  9  8 17   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  X  4  4
W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  9 10 19   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  X  6  6
FT PIERCE FL       X  X  7 11 18   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  X  2  2
COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  3 14 17

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM THU TO  2PM THU
C FROM  2PM THU TO  2AM FRI
D FROM  2AM FRI TO  2AM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER BEVEN


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