[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WWCA31 TJSJ 311952 CCA
HLSSJU
PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-312230-

BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE FRANCES LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
340 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2004

...POWERFUL HURRICANE FRANCES MOVING WESTWARD A LITTLE FASTER AS IT
PASSES FAR NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NORTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO...

...WATCHES/ADVISORIES...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO INCLUDING
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ST. THOMAS...ST JOHN AND ADJACENT ISLANDS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS.

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH AND EAST
COAST FROM TOA BAJA EAST TO FAJARDO AND THEN SOUTH TO HUMACAO. A
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHEAST FACING COASTS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES IN PUERTO
RICO AND FOR ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT SMALLER ISLANDS OF
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH THROUGH EAST
COASTS OF ST CROIX...AND FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS
OF ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT SMALLER ISLANDS. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...EAST AND
SOUTHEAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...FROM RINCON NORTH TO AGUADILLA
EAST TO FAJARDO THEN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO GUAYAMA...AND FOR THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

...AREA AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS OF ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA
AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND
GUSTS IN SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.


RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA
AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND
GUSTS IN SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON THE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 200 PM AST..1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 135 MILES NORTH
OF ST THOMAS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...140 MILES NORTH OF
CULEBRA...155 MILES NORTH OF VIEQUES...140 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
SAN JUAN AND 185 NORTHWEST OF AGUADILLA IN PUERTO RICO...

FRANCES CONTINUES MOVING WEST AT NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE
PASSING PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL RAINBANDS MOVING THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...225
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.

...WIND IMPACTS...
WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST DURING THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHEAST
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REST OF PUERTO
RICO WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WEST THEN SOUTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING AS
FRANCES MOVES NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. PEAK
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAINS.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FRANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS TO THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. GUSTS TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS...WHERE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GROW AND BECOME VERY CONFUSED
AND HIGH THIS EVENING. MODERATE TO LARGE EAST TO NORTHEAST SWELLS
GENERATED FROM FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE QUICKLY REACHING 12
FEET THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...AND SPREAD INTO
THE OPEN WATERS OF THE MONA PASSAGE LATE THIS EVENING.

AS FRANCES PASSES TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING...VERY LARGE AND
POWERFUL NORTHEAST THEN NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC COASTLINES... CREATING VERY HIGH AND DANGEROUS SURF OF 12
TO 20 FEET...WHICH WILL GENERATE STRONG RIP CURRENTS. ATLANTIC TIDES
WILL RUN AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL...AND IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH
SURF WILL CAUSE BEACH EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINES.

THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO WILL OCCUR AT 1022 PM
TONIGHT AND AT 1039 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT HIGH TIME FOR
MEGANS BAY IN ST THOMAS OF THE USVI WILL BE 959 PM TONIGHT AND 443
AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SMALL CRAFT IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE SMALL CRAFT IN
NORTH AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

...RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...
SHOWERS...SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF HURRICANE FRANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...AND THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND LANDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THESE TIMES. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE
RAINBANDS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH FRANCES MAY NOT BE
REALIZED UNTIL AFTER THE EYE HAS MOVED WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
RAPID RIVER AND STREAM RISES COULD OCCUR WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING
BANKFULL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY AROUND 630 PM
BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE FRANCES CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES.

...OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT (ALL LOWERCASE LETTERS).

        HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU


















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