[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WWCA31 TJSJ 311602 RRA
HLSSJU
PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-311830-

BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE FRANCES LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1130 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2004

...CORE OF POWERFULL HURRICANE FRANCES EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH
   OF PUERTO RICO WITH 135 MPH WINDS...

...WATCHES/ADVISORIES...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ST THOMAS...ST JOHN...
CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT WITHIN 24
HOURS OR LESS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR ST CROIX IN THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTH THROUGH EAST COASTS OF ST CROIX...AND FOR THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT
SMALLER ISLANDS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCH ARE
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...EAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTS
OF PUERTO RICO...FROM RINCON NORTH TO AGUADILLA EAST TO FAJARDO THEN
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO GUAYAMA...AND FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST COASTS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

...AREA AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS OF ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
CULEBRA SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...WITH FREQUENT SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BEGINNING THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.

RESIDENTS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIEQUES SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE ONSET OF
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SPREADING WEST TO
THE NORTHWEST COAST BY SUNSET...AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON THE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI. FUTURE
FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE CONSIDERABLY AS THIS WEATHER
SCENARIO EVOLVES.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1100 AM AST..1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 175 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...150 MILES NORTHEAST OF ST THOMAS
OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND 175 MILES NORTHEAST OF ST CROIX.

FRANCES CONTINUES MOVING WEST AT NEAR 15 MPH...AND A WEST TO
NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

...WIND IMPACTS...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND CULEBRA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THEN SPREADING ACROSS ST
THOMAS...ST JOHN AND CULEBRA ...AND PERSISTING THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY. PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND CULEBRA
BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM...WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ISLANDS.

FOR PUERTO RICO AND VIEQUES...THE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
JUST BRUSH THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIEQUES
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 30
TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST OR INCREASE IN THE SIZE OF FRANCES COULD BRING
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AND VIEQUES.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FRANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BRINGING TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS TO THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. GUSTS TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS...WHERE SEAS WILL GROW VERY CONFUSED AND HIGH THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST SWELLS GENERATED FROM FRANCES WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE TO 8 FEET AND GREATER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN REACH 12
FEET LATER TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...AND SPREAD INTO
THE OPEN WATERS OF THE MONA PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AS FRANCES PASSES TO THE NORTH TODAY...VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL
NORTHEAST THEN NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
COASTLINES... CREATING VERY HIGH AND DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 20
FEET...WHICH WILL GENERATE STRONG RIP CURRENTS. ATLANTIC TIDES WILL
RUN AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL...AND IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH SURF
WILL CAUSE BEACH EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINES. THE NEXT
HIGH TIDE FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO WILL OCCUR AT 1022 PM
TONIGHT...AND 959 PM TONIGHT AT MEGENS BAY IN ST THOMAS OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SMALL CRAFT IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE SMALL CRAFT IN
NORTH AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

...RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...
SHOWERS...SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF HURRICANE FRANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...AND THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. THEY WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD TO
THE NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH THE REST TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
LANDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THESE TIMES. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH FRANCES MAY NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL AFTER THE
EYE HAS MOVED WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF THREE TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LOCALLY HIGHEST
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MOUNTAINOUS SECTIONS OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. RAPID RIVER AND STREAM RISES COULD OCCUR WITH SOME
RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY AROUND 230 PM
BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE FRANCES CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES.

...OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT (ALL LOWERCASE LETTERS).

        HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU













This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net