[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT42 KNHC 311433
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

THE SYSTEM IS STILL WELL-DEFINED ON VISIBLE IMAGES AND WSR-88D DATA
FROM BROOKHAVEN NEW YORK SHOW A FAIR RADAR PRESENTATION.  SINCE
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
LIKELY.  GASTON IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING
BAROCLINIC ZONE VERY SOON...SO THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN 24 HOURS.  GASTON'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN A FEW
DAYS.

THE STORM HAS BEEN ACCELERATING...AND INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 055/18.
GASTON IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN
THE WESTERLIES.  THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE IN FORWARD
SPEEDS AMONGST THE VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS.  THIS OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE GUIDANCE...AND NOT QUITE AS FAST AS
THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      31/1500Z 39.5N  71.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     01/0000Z 41.0N  68.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     01/1200Z 43.0N  62.0W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     02/0000Z 46.0N  53.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     02/1200Z 49.5N  44.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     03/1200Z...ABSORBED

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