[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT31 KNHC 310541
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2004

...CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE FRANCES PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST.
KITTS...ST. EUSTATIUS...SABA...GUADELOUPE...AND ALSO FOR PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST.
THOMAS...ST. JOHN AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN...
ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. CROIX...AND FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM MANZANILLO BAY EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
FOR PORTIONS OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  62.1 WEST OR ABOUT  140
MILES... 225 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST. MARTIN IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE OUTER BANDS OF FRANCES WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THESE
ISLANDS TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY COULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS  951 MB...28.08 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...19.8 N... 62.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 951 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN


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