[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT41 KNHC 310301
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004

THE LAST REPORT FROM A NOAA RECON AIRCRAFT INDICATED THE PRESSURE
HAD DECREASED TO 945 MB. HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME...THE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERALL. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY
WILL REMAIN AT 110 KT.

FRANCES REMAINS ON TRACK AND THE MOTION IS NOW 280/12.  A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WESTWARD TO THE NORTH
OF FRANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS GASTON AND HERMINE EXIT
THE PICTURE.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE NHC MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT THEY HAVE BEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH MODEL DIVERGENCE TO WARRANT CONCERN FOR ALL OF FLORIDA AND
THE BAHAMAS. THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE....THE
GFS...MODELS BEND THE TRACK FRANCES SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD
AFTER 72 HOURS TOWARD NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. THE UKMET...
CANADIAN...ECMWF...AND THE LATEST ETA MODEL RUN KEEP FRANCES ON A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. GIVEN THE LONG RANGE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND NEAR THE NHC MODEL
CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LARGE TROUGH FORCAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL
RUNS DO NOT BEGIN TRENDING A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD. THE NEW 00Z
MODEL RUNS SHOULD BE INTERESTING.

THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS FRANCES UP TO 130 KT IN 48 HOURS...
WHICH SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. HOWEVER...TIMING INNER-CORE
FLUCTUATIONS LIKE WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST DAY OR SO IS IMPOSSIBLE...
SO ONLY SLOW STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      31/0300Z 19.7N  61.4W   110 KT
 12HR VT     31/1200Z 20.1N  63.4W   115 KT
 24HR VT     01/0000Z 20.9N  66.3W   115 KT
 36HR VT     01/1200Z 21.8N  69.1W   120 KT
 48HR VT     02/0000Z 23.0N  71.9W   120 KT
 72HR VT     03/0000Z 24.7N  75.3W   120 KT
 96HR VT     04/0000Z 26.5N  78.0W   120 KT
120HR VT     05/0000Z 28.0N  81.0W   100 KT...INLAND


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