[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WWCA31 TJSJ 301628
HLSSJU
PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-301800-

BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE FRANCES LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1228 PM AST MON AUG 30 2004

...POWERFUL HURRICANE FRANCES CONTINUING WESTWARD...

...WATCHES/ADVISORIES...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS...
AND FOR THE ISLAND OF CULEBRA...PUERTO RICO. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS
OR LESS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
HURRICANE WATCH FOR VIEQUES WAS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS OR LESS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH THROUGH EAST COASTS OF
ST CROIX THROUGH TONIGHT. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...FROM
RINCON NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH CEIBA...FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST COASTS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND FOR THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT
SMALLER ISLANDS...FOR TUESDAY.

...AREA AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS OF ST THOMAS...ST JOHN...AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS AND
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND PUERTO RICO.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
CULEBRA SHOULD PREPARE FOR MAINLY TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING. RESIDENTS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIEQUES
SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON THE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI. FUTURE FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS MAY
CHANGE CONSIDERABLY AS THIS WEATHER SCENARIO EVOLVES.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 420 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN...OR ABOUT 445 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...OR ABOUT 500 MILES EAST NORTHEAST
OF SAN JUAN.

FRANCES WAS MOVING WEST AT NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES.

...WIND IMPACTS...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND CULEBRA TONIGHT...BECOMING NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY MORNING
AND REACHING TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...AND SPREAD ACROSS ST
THOMAS...ST JOHN AND CULEBRA BY AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. THESE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
CULEBRA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR FRANCES COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THESE ISLANDS DURING THIS TIME. FOR PUERTO RICO AND
VIEQUES...THE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...JUST BRUSHING THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO
RICO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. ANY DEVIATION TO
THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR FRANCES COULD BRING SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO PUERTO RICO AND VIEQUES.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST SWELLS GENERATED FROM FRANCES WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE...THE LOCAL EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WATERS...AND THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 8 FEET AND GREATER TONIGHT AND REACHING 12 FEET ON
TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FRANCES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN ANEGADA PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
ACROSS THE LOCAL OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...BRINGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH. SURF AND TIDES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF ST CROIX AND THE EAST AND SOUTH COASTS OF
THE REMAINING U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY. AS FRANCES PASSES TO
THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL NORTHEAST THEN NORTH
SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTLINES...CREATING VERY
HIGH AND DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 20 FEET. SMALL CRAFT IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES SHOULD PLAN TO RETURN TO SAFE
HARBOR BY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

...RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...
SHOWERS...SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF HURRICANE FRANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND OVER CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES LATER THIS EVENING...AND THEN BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND
NUMEROUS THROUGH TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND LANDSLIDES ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF FRANCES
MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MOUNTAINOUS SECTIONS OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. RAPID RIVER AND STREAM RISES COULD OCCUR WITH SOME
RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL MAINLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY AROUND 2:30 PM
BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN.

/RM

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE FRANCES CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES.

...OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT (ALL LOWERCASE LETTERS).

        HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU

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