[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 300833
SPFAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST MON AUG 30 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  57.3 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM AST THU SEP  2 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

19.6N  62.0W      49  X  X  X 49   MUCM 214N 779W     X  X  X  2  2
20.2N  64.7W       3 29  X  X 32   TJSJ 184N 661W     X 12  4  X 16
21.0N  67.4W       X  7 17  1 25   MDPP 198N 707W     X  X  6  9 15
TAPA 171N 618W     3  1  X  X  4   MBJT 215N 712W     X  X  5 13 18
TKPK 173N 627W     4  3  1  X  8   MYMM 224N 730W     X  X  X 16 16
TNCM 181N 631W    12  8  X  X 20   MYSM 241N 745W     X  X  X 13 13
TISX 177N 648W     1 10  1  X 12   MYEG 235N 758W     X  X  X  9  9
TIST 183N 650W     1 15  1  1 18   MYAK 241N 776W     X  X  X  4  4
TJPS 180N 666W     X  6  6  X 12   MYNN 251N 775W     X  X  X  4  4
MDSD 185N 697W     X  X  6  5 11   ST CROIX VI        1 10  1  X 12
MDCB 176N 714W     X  X  1  4  5   ST THOMAS VI       1 15  1  1 18
MTPP 186N 724W     X  X  1  6  7   SAN JUAN PR        X 12  4  X 16
MTCA 183N 738W     X  X  X  4  4   PONCE PR           X  6  6  X 12
MUGM 200N 751W     X  X  X  6  6

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM TUE TO  2PM TUE
C FROM  2PM TUE TO  2AM WED
D FROM  2AM WED TO  2AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER BEVEN


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