[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT31 KNHC 300253
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2004

...POWERFUL HURRICANE CONTINUES ON SLOW WESTWARD TRACK...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE
FOLLOWING LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THEIR GOVERNMENTS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA
...ST MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...ST EUSTATIUS AND
SABA.  ST MARTIN AND ST BARTHELEMY MAY ALSO BE THREATENED.  A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE BRITISH
AND NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS INCLUDING ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND
SURROUNDING ISLANDS...ALSO FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  56.2 WEST OR ABOUT  455
MILES... 730 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR  8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A RECENT U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT
REPORTED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...18.9 N... 56.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR  8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


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