[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 300246
SPFAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  56.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8PM AST WED SEP  1 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

19.5N  60.8W      49  X  X  X 49   MUGM 200N 751W     X  X  X  3  3
20.0N  63.4W       6 28  X  X 34   TJSJ 184N 661W     X  5 10  1 16
20.8N  66.2W       X  9 18  X 27   MDPP 198N 707W     X  X  2 11 13
TAPA 171N 618W     3  5  1  X  9   MBJT 215N 712W     X  X  1 17 18
TKPK 173N 627W     2  8  1  X 11   MYMM 224N 730W     X  X  X 15 15
TNCM 181N 631W     3 16  1  X 20   MYSM 241N 745W     X  X  X 11 11
TISX 177N 648W     X  7  5  1 13   MYEG 235N 758W     X  X  X  7  7
TIST 183N 650W     X 11  6  1 18   MYAK 241N 776W     X  X  X  2  2
TJPS 180N 666W     X  2  8  2 12   MYNN 251N 775W     X  X  X  2  2
MDSD 185N 697W     X  X  2  8 10   ST CROIX VI        X  7  5  1 13
MDCB 176N 714W     X  X  X  3  3   ST THOMAS VI       X 11  6  1 18
MTPP 186N 724W     X  X  X  5  5   SAN JUAN PR        X  5 10  1 16
MTCA 183N 738W     X  X  X  2  2   PONCE PR           X  2  8  2 12

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8PM MON TO  8AM TUE
C FROM  8AM TUE TO  8PM TUE
D FROM  8PM TUE TO  8PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


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