[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 300033
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN 29 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 30/0015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
CATEGORY THREE FOUR HURRICANE FRANCES CENTER NEAR 18.8N 55.8W OR
ABOUT 480 MILES/772 KM EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
AT 30/0000 UTC...MOVING WEST 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
115 KT GUSTS 140 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB.
SEE THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY OR FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC OR
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 54.5W AND 56.5W.

TROPICAL STORM GASTON HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AND ITS CENTER WAS NEAR 34.2N 79.4W OR ABOUT
20 MILES EAST OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA...AT 30/0000 UTC...
MOVING NORTH 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED NEAR 35 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB.
SEE THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY OR FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND FROM SOUTH CAROLINA INTO
NORTH CAROLINA FROM 33.5N TO 35N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DEVELOPED IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CENTER
NEAR 32.4N 71.0W OR ABOUT 325 MILES/520 KM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...AT 29/2100 UTC...MOVING NORTHWEST
9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB. SEE THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC
ADVISORY OR FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC OR MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 30N TO 33N
BETWEEN 70W AND 72.5W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG AFRICA COAST ALONG 18W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING
WEST 10 KT. CYCLONIC TURNING IN MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 15W AND 20W. CELLS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 17.5W AND 18.5W.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W/40W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DIRECTLY RELATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W/88W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTH OF 20N. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF YUCATAN PENINSULA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM EL SALVADOR AND NICARAGUA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
MEXICO BETWEEN 88W AND 94W...MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ OVER SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 10N30W 9N41W 11N53W AND
11N64W...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG FROM 10N77W
TO 10N85W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
180 TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF AXIS EAST OF 46W...AND FROM
7N TO 16N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...DISSIPATING A BIT WITH TIME...FROM 7.5N TO 9.5N
BETWEEN 78W AND 84W OVER AND IN COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVER
MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW
IS FEEDING INTO AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...EMBEDDED
IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR...COVERING MOST OF THE GULF
EAST OF 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 31N84W TO 27N88W
TO 23N94W. AN 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
27N95W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTHWEST
OF 30N85W 24N90W 20N97W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
WEST OF 75W. THIS WESTERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY FEEDS INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...REACHING THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WHOSE BASE IS NEAR 14N76W...PASSING OVER
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO NORTHWESTERN CUBA...AND EVEN WESTERN
JAMAICA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE AREA.

...THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 25N74W...WITH TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM IT INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC FLOW
FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N62W...CYCLONIC FLOW FROM
27N TO 32N BETWEEN 59W AND 65W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THROUGH 32N33W TO 24N42W.

...THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
HURRICANE FRANCES CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER IN THE
TROPICS.  A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
ALONG 18W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...IN DRY AIR...FROM 17N TO
25N BETWEEN 16W AND 26N JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW
CONTINUES TOWARD THE AREA AROUND HURRICANE FRANCES.

$$
MT



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