[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 292107
SPFAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  55.6 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM AST WED SEP  1 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

19.5N  59.5W      48  X  X  X 48   MDCB 176N 714W     X  X  X  2  2
20.0N  62.0W       3 29  1  X 33   MTPP 186N 724W     X  X  X  3  3
20.5N  64.5W       X 10 15  1 26   TJSJ 184N 661W     X  1  9  5 15
TDPR 153N 614W     X  1  X  1  2   MDPP 198N 707W     X  X  X 10 10
80400 157N 636W    X  1  1  1  3   MBJT 215N 712W     X  X  X 13 13
TFFR 163N 615W     1  5  1  X  7   MYMM 224N 730W     X  X  X  9  9
TAPA 171N 618W     2 11  X  1 14   MYSM 241N 745W     X  X  X  5  5
TKPK 173N 627W     X 10  3  1 14   MYEG 235N 758W     X  X  X  2  2
TNCM 181N 631W     X 15  3  1 19   ST CROIX VI        X  2  9  2 13
TISX 177N 648W     X  2  9  2 13   ST THOMAS VI       X  3 11  2 16
TIST 183N 650W     X  3 11  2 16   SAN JUAN PR        X  1  9  5 15
TJPS 180N 666W     X  X  6  6 12   PONCE PR           X  X  6  6 12
MDSD 185N 697W     X  X  X  8  8

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM MON TO  2AM TUE
C FROM  2AM TUE TO  2PM TUE
D FROM  2PM TUE TO  2PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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