[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 291440
SPFAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  54.7 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM AST WED SEP  1 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

19.5N  58.5W      47  X  X  X 47   MDSD 185N 697W     X  X  X  9  9
20.0N  61.0W       3 28  1  X 32   MDCB 176N 714W     X  X  X  3  3
20.5N  63.5W       X 10 14  1 25   MTPP 186N 724W     X  X  X  3  3
TDPR 153N 614W     X  1  1  1  3   TJSJ 184N 661W     X  X  6  9 15
80400 157N 636W    X  X  3  2  5   MDPP 198N 707W     X  X  X 10 10
TFFR 163N 615W     X  4  3  1  8   MBJT 215N 712W     X  X  X 12 12
TAPA 171N 618W     X  8  4  1 13   MYMM 224N 730W     X  X  X  7  7
TKPK 173N 627W     X  5  7  1 13   MYSM 241N 745W     X  X  X  3  3
TNCM 181N 631W     X  7  9  1 17   ST CROIX VI        X  1  8  4 13
TISX 177N 648W     X  1  8  4 13   ST THOMAS VI       X  1 10  5 16
TIST 183N 650W     X  1 10  5 16   SAN JUAN PR        X  X  6  9 15
TJPS 180N 666W     X  X  3  9 12   PONCE PR           X  X  3  9 12

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8AM MON TO  8PM MON
C FROM  8PM MON TO  8AM TUE
D FROM  8AM TUE TO  8AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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