[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT41 KNHC 290841
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

FRANCES IS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING HURRICANE AND IF WE FAST FORWARDED
BACK TO LAST YEAR I WOULD THINK I WAS LOOKING AT ISABEL.  INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FOR FRANCES REMAIN NEAR 115 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/08. FRANCES REMAINS ON TRACK AND CONTINUES
TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECASTS OR REASONINGS.  MOST OF THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON GRADUALLY BUILDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE SPREAD IN THE GLOBAL MODELS AT THE 4 AND 5 DAY PERIODS APPEARS
TO BE HOW THEY HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ITS
ORIENTATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AT THE 4 AND 5 DAY
PERIODS ARE JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE GUNA CONSENSUS.

FRANCES IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE SSTS ARE NEAR 29C...AND ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FRANCES COULD
REACH CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY AT ANY TIME DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/0900Z 18.6N  54.1W   115 KT
 12HR VT     29/1800Z 19.0N  55.4W   120 KT
 24HR VT     30/0600Z 19.5N  57.4W   120 KT
 36HR VT     30/1800Z 19.9N  59.8W   120 KT
 48HR VT     31/0600Z 20.3N  62.3W   120 KT
 72HR VT     01/0600Z 21.5N  67.3W   120 KT
 96HR VT     02/0600Z 22.8N  71.4W   125 KT
120HR VT     03/0600Z 25.0N  75.0W   125 KT


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