[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT42 KNHC 290834
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

RADAR AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT GASTON IS VERY CLOSE
TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z FROM TAFB
AND AFWA WERE 55 KT...AND 65 KT FROM SAB.  THE NWS/CHARLESTON RADAR
SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WITH A PARTIAL EYEWALL...BUT ONLY A
MODEST WARM SPOT IS APPARENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  BASED
ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60
KT.  I SEE NOTHING TO PREVENT GASTON FROM REACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN THE HOURS REMAINING PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  ALTHOUGH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS 65 KT AT 12 HOURS...GASTON SHOULD ALREADY
BE INLAND BY THAT TIME.  I SUSPECT THAT THE LANDFALL INTENSITY WILL
BE A LITTLE HIGHER...PERHAPS AROUND 70 KT.

GASTON HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH AS EXPECTED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
IS NOW 350/6. GASTON IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY
NORTHWARD TRACK TODAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN
THE WESTERLIES...AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED WESTWARD SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE FASTER NORTHWARD
MOTION ALSO SUGGESTS THAT GASTON MAY PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT GASTON SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED IN THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/0900Z 32.5N  79.5W    60 KT
 12HR VT     29/1800Z 33.5N  79.6W    65 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     30/0600Z 35.0N  79.4W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     30/1800Z 36.7N  78.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     31/0600Z 38.5N  75.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     01/0600Z 43.0N  66.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     02/0600Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE


$$
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net