[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 290606
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN 29 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GASTON CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR SOUTH CAROLINA FROM SAVANNAH RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER
INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR COASTAL NORTH
CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF THE LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SURF
CITY..TROPICAL STORM GASTON CENTER NEAR 31.7N 79.2W AT 29/03000
UTC MOVING NNW AT 3 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 55 KT
GUSTS 65 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB. SEE THE
LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY OR FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC OR MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CHARLESTON SC RADAR SHOWS AN EYE-TYPE
FEATURE EXCEPT IT REMAINS OPEN ON THE SOUTH SIDE.  SOME
STRENGTHEN IS LIKELY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXTEND OUT WARD FROM THE CENTER 90 NM.

HURRICANE FRANCES CENTER NEAR 18.3N 53.4W AT 29/0300 UTC MOVING
WNW 9 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC OR MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.  FRANCE CONTINUES TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WNW. THE
SHEAR  REMAINS LOW AND THE SSTS REMAIN WORM...AND ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR.


1014 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 30N69W ABOUT 250 NM WSW OF
BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITH IN 090 NM OF THE
CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 35W SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LOCATED
MAINLY WITH IN THE ITCZ FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 30W-39W.

WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W/85W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
LOCATED MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA NORTH TO WESTERN
HONDURAS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 15N12W 8N30W 6N40W 8N60W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION BETWEEN9N-16N BETWEEN 15W-25W AND BETWEEN 7N-11N
BETWEEN 26W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER NW PORTION OF THE GULF
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NE TO SE LOUISIANA. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS STARTING TO PUSH IT
WAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FROM THE MID WESTERN UNITED
STATES...WHICH IS HELPING TO CREATE INSTABILITY OVER THE GULF
STATES AND THE NW PORTION THE GOLF OF MEXICO...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 88W AND 97W.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SE FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THE REAMING GULF QUIET.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH
HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 13N74W.  SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA.
A WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW
COLUMBIA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  CONVECTION IS MOSTLY
ISOLATED TO CENTRAL AMERICA WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
VENEZUELA.  ISOLATED MODERATED CONVECTION  IS CONFINED TO THE
GREATER ANTILLES.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM GASTON IS LOCATED 90 NM SSE OF CHARLESTON SC. A
1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ABOUT 250 NM WSW OF BERMUDA. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL
TROUGH FROM 21N-30N.   MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 69W N
OF N OF 28 IS SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD.  UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
NEAR 24N14W DOMINATED THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/TRANQUIL WEATHER.  AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD OVER THE MID-LATITUDES IT WILL BE A KEY PLAYER HOW FAR
WEST FRANCE WILL TURN.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
HURRICANE FRANCES CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER IN THE
DEEP TROPICS. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AFRICA
NEAR WESTERN SAHARA WSW TO16N26W.  MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE AREA.

$$
JP/RG


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