[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT42 KNHC 290230
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED 60 KT
WINDS AT 1500 FT FLIGHT LEVEL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND
MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 994 MB AND ALSO REPORTED A 35 N MI
DIAMETER EYE WITH SOME OPEN AREAS.  BOTH CHARLESTON AND WILMINGTON
RADARS SHOW AN EYE-TYPE FEATURE EXCEPT OPEN TO THE SOUTH.  THE WIND
SPEED IS INCREASED TO 55 KT BASED ON THE ABOVE.  WITH LIGHT
VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS...BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BRING
GASTON TO ABOUT 65 KT BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/03 BASED ON RECON...RADAR AND SATELLITE
FIXES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE SAME SCENARIO OF A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO AN ADVANCING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT A LITTLE FASTER...
THROUGH 24 HOURS.  AFTER 24 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ALSO FASTER IN
AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS.

RECON OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE RADIUS OF 35 KT WINDS IS ONLY ABOUT
50 N MI OR LESS IN ALL QUADRANTS.  THE RADII EAST OF THE CENTER ARE
FORECAST TO EXPAND TO 75 N MI AS GASTON MOVES NORTHWARD.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/0300Z 31.7N  79.2W    55 KT
 12HR VT     29/1200Z 32.3N  79.5W    65 KT
 24HR VT     30/0000Z 33.6N  79.7W    55 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     30/1200Z 35.1N  79.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     31/0000Z 36.7N  77.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     01/0000Z 41.0N  70.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     02/0000Z 45.0N  59.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     03/0000Z 47.0N  46.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


$$This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net