[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT41 KNHC 280841
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
FRANCES. THE EYE IS NOT AS DISTINCT AS FEW HOURS AGO AND CONVECTION
IS NOT AS STRONG AS EARLIER. I WAS TEMPTED TO LOWER THE WINDS BUT
THE DVORAK ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 100-KNOT WINDS AT THIS TIME.
ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE IS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING AT
THIS TIME...AND IS HEADING TOWARD AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THE
SHEAR WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...
INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE.

THE EXPECTED TURN MORE TO THE WEST HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET AND IN
FACT GLOBAL AND THE GFDL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WESTWARD TRACK
SHOULD NOT BEGIN FOR ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE HURRICANE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A STRONG AND LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE CREATING A PATTERN THAT WOULD FORCE THE
HURRICANE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN WESTWARD TRACK. THE UK
MODEL IS NOW CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION BRINGING THE HURRICANE
DANGEROUSLY WESTWARD JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE BAHAMAS
DURING THE NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT
TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS
AND THE UK MODEL SOLUTION.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/0900Z 17.0N  51.3W   100 KT
 12HR VT     28/1800Z 18.0N  52.5W   105 KT
 24HR VT     29/0600Z 19.0N  54.3W   110 KT
 36HR VT     29/1800Z 20.0N  56.5W   115 KT
 48HR VT     30/0600Z 20.5N  58.5W   115 KT
 72HR VT     31/0600Z 21.0N  63.5W   115 KT
 96HR VT     01/0600Z 22.0N  68.5W   115 KT
120HR VT     02/0600Z 23.0N  72.4W   115 KT


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