[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin
Nashville EMWIN
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Fri Aug 27 15:29:44 CDT 2004
WTNT72 KNHC 272029
SPFAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
32.0N 79.5W 64 X X X 64 OCEAN CITY MD X X 3 7 10
32.8N 80.0W 37 X X 1 38 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X 1 6 7
33.7N 79.4W 25 1 1 1 28 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 5 5
COCOA BEACH FL X 1 X 2 3 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 3 3
DAYTONA BEACH FL 2 2 1 2 7 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 2 2
JACKSONVILLE FL 8 3 2 1 14 TAMPA FL X X 1 1 2
SAVANNAH GA 22 2 X 1 25 CEDAR KEY FL X 1 2 2 5
CHARLESTON SC 36 X X X 36 ST MARKS FL X 2 2 3 7
MYRTLE BEACH SC 24 2 1 X 27 APALACHICOLA FL X X 2 2 4
WILMINGTON NC 12 5 2 2 21 PANAMA CITY FL X X 1 3 4
MOREHEAD CITY NC 2 7 4 4 17 PENSACOLA FL X X X 2 2
CAPE HATTERAS NC X 3 5 6 14 GULF 29N 85W X X 1 2 3
NORFOLK VA X 2 6 6 14
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN
C FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN
D FROM 2PM SUN TO 2PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
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