[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 251757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED 25 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CENTERED NEAR 11.4N 39.1W...OR ABOUT
1515 MILES...2440 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...AT 25/1500
UTC MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT
GUSTS 40 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB.
SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  IN THE PAST SIX
HOURS CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED SLIGHTLY OVER THE OUTER BANDS...
AND INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER.  OUTFLOW LOOKS GOOD OVER THE W
SEMICIRCLE.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 38W-41W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER W AFRICA... AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE BROAD TURNING AROUND THE WAVE AXIS.   PATCHES OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN
11W-21W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST AT 20 KT.
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 57W-63W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 13N10W 8N20W 9N40W 9N60W 9N80W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
21W-30W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 77W-84W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH OVER MAINE NEAR
45N68W TO NORTH FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N88W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF W
FLORIDA FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 80W-87W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS
NEAR 28N96W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO N OF 18N BETWEEN 85W-103W.  MOISTURE IS NOTED E OF 90W
WHILE SUBSIDENCE IS W OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STEADY EASTERLIES DOMINATE THE SURFACE FLOW OVER OF THE
CARIBBEAN.  AN ITCZ CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA ARE PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 77W-84W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N75W.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE IS FROM 13N-26N BETWEEN 65W-85W.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N64W 33N74W
31N80W.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
29N-35N BETWEEN 60W-80W.  A TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
FLORIDA E COAST FROM 30N80W TO 24N82W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 77W-80W.  LARGE 1034
MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 43N28W.  A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N65W.  MOSTLY NE TO E FLOW
IS FROM 20N TO THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-65W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A NARROW RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 27N79W TO BEYOND 32N67W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 180
NM OF THE AXIS.  CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N58W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE
CENTER.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N43W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE
CENTER.  CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY
ISLANDS AT 34N20W.  A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 20N40W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 420 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
THE MAJOR FEATURE OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC IS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIX FOLLOWED BY A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 16W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER W
AFRICA NEAR 22N8W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WSW TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS ALONG 15N20W 13N60W.  UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS S OF
THE RIDGE AXIS PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net