[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT41 KNHC 250839
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 25 2004

IR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED A
LITTLE...PRIMARILY IN A CURVED BAND TO THE NORTH...AND THE OUTFLOW
IS ESTABLISHED EVERYWHERE BUT TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE CYCLONE WILL
LIKELY STRENGTHEN SINCE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM SSTS FOR THE NEXT 2 TO
3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER SOME SHEAR AS
SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL AND SHIPS MODELS. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HINDER SLOW STRENGTHENING.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS.
CURRENTLY...THE CYCLONE IS SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT
UNANIMOUSLY...ALL GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE RIDGE AS A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 3 DAYS. BECAUSE OF CONTINUITY...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IT IS
STILL TO THE LEFT OF THE GFDL AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS. MOST LIKELY
THE TRACK HAS TO BE ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT LATER TODAY IF MODELS
INSIST ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH. AT THIS
TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND AVAILABLE TRACK MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD WELL-EAST OT THE LESSER
ANTILLES IN 4 OR 5 DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      25/0900Z 11.4N  37.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 11.8N  39.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 12.5N  42.3W    40 KT
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 13.5N  44.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 14.5N  46.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     28/0600Z 16.5N  49.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     29/0600Z 19.0N  52.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     30/0600Z 22.0N  54.0W    70 KT


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