[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 241815
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE 24 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 17N... OR ABOUT 610
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN
28W-35W...AND FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 34W-40W.  THE TROPICAL WAVE
HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY OR
WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 20 KT.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS IS A COMPLEX WAVE WITH A
MAIN FEATURE TRACKED ON THE ITCZ AT 52W...AND VORTICES LAGGING
NE AT 17N46W AND 25N45W.   SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE
ITCZ AND FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 42W-47W.  COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE...DENOTED BY THE INCREASE IN
ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WILL MOVE INTO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY WITH ENHANCED RAINSHOWERS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 15N10W 10N30W 8N40W 10N60W 9N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 13W-17W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 79W-84W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WINDS ARE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SE AT 10-15 KNOTS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER INLAND CENTRAL
AND SOUTH FLORIDA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER N MEXICO NEAR 28N103W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
NE TO MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N91W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER N
MEXICO AND THE N GULF N OF 14N.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER
S MEXICO NEAR 19N98W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER S MEXICO AND THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 14N-25N BETWEEN 90W-108W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING IS NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  STRONG
EASTERLIES ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE SEA.  HEAVY CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO THE SE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN N COLOMBIA AND NICARAGUA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS IS CENTERED NEAR
HISPANIOLA AT 18N75W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN
65W-85W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PREDOMINATE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC IS CENTERED AT
42N32W WITH 1036 MB.  SURFACE WINDS ARE MOSTLY FROM THE NW AND W
BETWEEN 20N-30N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A NARROW RIDGE IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC FROM 25N80W TO BEYOND 32N67W.  A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N58W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 18N-33N BETWEEN 50W-65W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N41W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 18N-35N BETWEEN 35W-50W.  A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OFF THE COAST OF SPAIN NEAR 36N16W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
THE MAJOR FEATURE IN THE TROPICAL EAST ATLANTIC IS THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 33W.  A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
10N33W THAT SHOWS SIGNS OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  ANOTHER LARGE
SURFACE LOW IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 13N7W MOVING RAPIDLY
WEST.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER W AFRICA NEAR 20N1W.  RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 10N60W.  MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS THE
RULE EXCEPT OVER THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 33W...AND OVER THE SURFACE
LOW AT 13N7W.

$$
FORMOSA





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