[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 230605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON 23 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 23W/24W
SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 KT. BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL ROTATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR
IS KEEPING MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL WEST OF
THE WAVE. ISOLATED CELL OF SHOWERS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 20W
AND 23W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 24W AND 31W.

TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS ALONG 39W/40W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
THIS IS A POORLY-DEFINED WAVE WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT WINDS
NEAR THE AXIS.

WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 20 KT.  WAVE HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED MODERATE S OF 15N W OF 79W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 12N17W 9N27W 10N39W 9N50W 10N61W. AXIS IS ALONG 13N16W
10N27W 10N40W 7N48W 9N52W 10N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 19N BETWEEN 40W AND
60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
STAGNANT PATTERN OVER THE REGION WITH DEEP-LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND TSTMS FORMING OVER ADJACENT LAND AREA
IN THE SOUTHERN USA.  MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING THE GULF
WATERS RATHER QUIET WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF 26N
EAST OF 87W.  SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES IN
NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI IS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD...AND
IT IS LIKELY THAT IT WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TOMORROW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. TROUGH OVER THE
BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EAST OF 92W. CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND INFORMATION FROM 23/0300 UTC SHOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WEST OF 70W.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STATIONARY NARROW TROUGH IS OVER THE NW BAHAMAS ASSISTING
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W.
WEAK RIDGING IS OVER THE SE BAHAMAS BUT THE MAIN STORY IS THE
RETURN OF A STRONG MID-OCEANIC TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC.
TROUGH RUNS FROM UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
32N52W TO 25N59W...TO A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CENTER NEAR 21N57W...TO 15N61W IN THE ISLANDS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM
20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W...SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AROUND IT. SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N52W TO
23N54W TO 16N55W. THE REMNANTS OF DANIELLE ARE AN 1016 MB SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N42W...WITH A TROUGH FROM THIS CENTER
TO 26N42W 22N43W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 29N TO 33N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 24N EAST OF 39W.
SURFACE RIDGE FROM 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N67W TO
28N82W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 16N88W
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... TROUGHING ALONG 36W N OF 14N DIVIDES THE
ATLC INTO A MOIST E ATLC AND RATHER DRY W ATLC.  TRADES ARE VERY
LIGHT IN THE DEEP TROPICS WITH AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING
10 KT OR LESS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 30W TO 55W.  MID-OCEANIC
TROUGH HAS SNUCK INTO THE NW PART OF THE AREA WITH UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION N OF 14N W OF 50W.
RIDGING IS BUILDING BACK INTO THE E ATLC WITH A BIT MORE
MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN THE ITCZ.

$$
MT


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