[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 221756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN 22 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. WELL DEFINED
BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL ROTATION IS NOTED IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
19W-21W...AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 24W-26W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS 4N-8N BETWEEN 18W-28W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE HAS
A POORLY DEFINED AXIS WHICH REMAINS NEARLY INDISCERNIBLE WHEN
VIEWED IN THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES THIS MORNING. STRONG SURGE OF
SAHARAN DUST IS TRAILING THIS WAVE PARTICULARLY FROM ABOUT 20N
TO 27N E OF THE WAVE AXIS.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 19N MOVING W 20 KT.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE REMAINING S OF 15N BETWEEN
73W-82W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W S OF 21N MOVING W 20 KT.
MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS
SHIFTED SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE E PACIFIC BASIN.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 8N13W 10N20W 8N25W 12N36W 7N48W 9N61W 10N80W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 40W-60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
PANAMA FROM 9N-11N 79W-82W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP-LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH
MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN TEXAS NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO FLORIDA THEN
S DOWN THE PENINSULA BEFORE TURNING SW ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS AND
AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N88W.  CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W.  W OF
88W...MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING MUCH OF THE GULF QUIET WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED. EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS ACROSS THE MOISTURE LADEN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE AGAIN TODAY AS THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG EASTERLIES DOMINATES THE SURFACE WITH ONE TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N76W IS BEGINNING TO
PUSH MOISTURE FROM INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA NORTHWARD
INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. DIVERGENCE ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THIS HIGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOISTENING MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVELS SHOULD AID IN REFORMATION OF TSTMS LATER TODAY
AS CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N66W.  1016 MB LOW...
THE REMNANTS OF DANIELLE...IS NEAR 30N41W.  1024 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N27W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NARROW TROUGH
IS ALONG 32N74W 23N79W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT E OF TROUGH AXIS
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE LIMITED SHOWER AND TSTMS ACTIVITY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND WESTERN ATLC FROM 23N-31N
BETWEEN 71W-78W.  RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N76W TO 20N70W.  A
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 22N57W.  FURTHER NE...FAIRLY
VIGOROUS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 31N52W AND DRIFTING SLOWLY
SOUTH. GENERALLY WLY FLOW IS BETWEEN 50W-35W N OF 25N WITH
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ACROSS THIS AREA. SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 21N36W.  LARGE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR 22N26W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
EASTERLIES DOMINATE THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 20N.  TWO
TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...EASTERLY FLOW IS ALSO NOTED S OF 14N.  THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION NEAR 21N36W IS PRODUCING CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 14N-26N
BETWEEN 32W-40W.  LIKEWISE...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 22N57W IS
PRODUCING WESTERLY FLOW FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 45W-65W.

$$
FORMOSA


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