[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT44 KNHC 211430
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT AUG 21 2004

THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS VOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION. QUICKSCAT SHOWS THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS STILL
ESTABLISHED WITH ONE MAXIMUM WIND VECTOR OF 25 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THEREFORE THE CYCLONE SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

THE CIRCULATION IS DRIFTING WESTWARD...ABOUT 3 KNOTS. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE REMNANT
LOW WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT BY 72 HOURS.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER UNLESS REGENERATON OCCURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      21/1500Z 30.7N  39.1W    25 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 30.7N  39.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     22/1200Z 31.5N  40.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     23/0000Z 32.5N  41.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     23/1200Z 34.5N  43.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     24/1200Z 40.0N  44.0W    20 KT...ABSORBED BY A FRONT


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