[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT44 KNHC 201431
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004

DESPITE THE APPARENT UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE
ENVIRONMENT...DANIELLE HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH LIMITED...TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CYCLONE AT THIS
TIME...EXACERBATING THE HOSTILE CONDITIONS AND GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THEREFORE...
WEAKENING IS FORECAST BUT DANIELLE IS KEPT AS A TROPICAL STORM A
LITTLE BIT LONGER SINCE NEITHER THE SHIPS OR GFDL MODELS WEAKEN
DANIELLE. IN FACT...THE LATTER MAKES DANIELLE A HURRICANE AGAIN.

DUE TO WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...DANIELLE HAS BEEN MEANDERING SINCE
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CYCLONE CREATING A PATTERN THAT WOULD STEER DANIELLE SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
THE FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE...I DO NOT WANT TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT OF
THE OFFICIAL TRACK AT THIS TIME. I RATHER WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL
CYCLE TO SEE IF THE NORTHWESTWARD TREND CONTINUES.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/1500Z 30.8N  37.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 31.1N  37.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 31.5N  38.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 32.0N  38.5W    25 KT
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 32.5N  39.0W    25 KT
 72HR VT     23/1200Z 34.0N  40.0W    25 KT
 96HR VT     24/1200Z 36.0N  41.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     25/1200Z 39.5N  41.0W    25 KT


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