[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT44 KNHC 192038
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 19 2004

THERE ARE CHANGES IN THE TRACK MODELS IN THE 12Z RUN...A BIG PLUS
FOR THE GFS IF THIS HAPPENS. DANIELLE HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS WHILE EMBEDDED IN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.
MOST OF THE MODELS ARE BUILDING A RIDGE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CYCLONE FORCING DANIELLE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS BEGAN TO SUGGEST THIS NORTHWESTWARD
OR WESTWARD TREND MUCH EARLIER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. I HAVE NO
OPTION BUT TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST AND MOVE DANIELLE VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD.

NEVERTHERELESS...ALTHOUGH DANIELLE REMAINS AS 35-KNOT TROPICAL
STORM...STRONG SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE CYCLONE SO A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...SINCE
DANIELLE IS NO LONGER FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...IT
COULD LINGER A LITTLE BIT LONGER AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A
REMNANT LOW INSTEAD OF BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      19/2100Z 30.0N  37.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 30.0N  37.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 30.8N  37.2W    25 KT
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 31.5N  37.0W    25 KT
 48HR VT     21/1800Z 32.0N  37.3W    25 KT
 72HR VT     22/1800Z 32.5N  37.5W    25 KT
 96HR VT     23/1800Z 33.0N  37.7W    25 KT
120HR VT     24/1800Z 34.0N  39.0W    25 KT


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