[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT44 KNHC 191439
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2004

DANIELLE CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHES OF
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. A HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS OVER
THE CYCLONE EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWS WIND VECTORS SUPPORTING
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS. STRONGER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER
DANIELLE SO WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS
MODEL.

DANIELLE WAS MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS NOW
DRIFTING EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A
SLOW NORTHEAST TRACK ABOUT 4 TO 5 KNOTS LATER TODAY. BECAUSE THE
STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...NO INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED THROUGH 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      19/1500Z 30.0N  37.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 30.5N  37.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 31.0N  36.5W    25 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 32.0N  35.5W    25 KT
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 32.5N  34.5W    25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 34.0N  32.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     23/1200Z 36.0N  28.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL



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