[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT44 KNHC 180251
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004

...CORRECTED 1ST PARAGRAPH TO INDICATE THAT UKMET HAS OUTPERFORMED
GFDL...

THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND A
QUIKSCAT PASS AT 21Z INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF DANIELLE IS
LAGGING BEHIND THE CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN
355/12...CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN BEFORE.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
QUITE DIVERGENT...WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO IMMEDIATELY SHEAR OFF
THE CYCLONE AND LEAVE ITS REMNANTS TO MEANDER.  TO VARYING
DEGREES...THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFDL MAINTAIN A MORE VERTICAL
SYSTEM AND RECURVE IT NORTHEASTWARD.  DANIELLE IS CLEARLY BEGINNING
TO SUFFER FROM SHEAR...BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT INDICATED BY
THE GFS.  THE NOGAPS ON THE OTHER HAND...WHICH BOGUSES A
VORTEX...SHOWS NO SIGNS OF A SHEARED SYSTEM 24 HOURS INTO THE
INTEGRATION.  I HAVE REJECTED BOTH THE NOGAPS AND GFS AS
UNREALISTIC.  THAT LEAVES THE GFDL AND THE UKMET...THE LATTER OF
WHICH HAS HANDILY OUTPERFORMED THE FORMER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO FAR.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO THE VICINITY OF THE AZORES IN
ABOUT 4 DAYS.

THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE.  THERE IS A WIDE RANGE
IN THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...FROM 65 KT FROM AFWA TO 90
KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED FROM 85 TO
80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WARM SSTS WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS.  STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      18/0300Z 26.5N  40.6W    80 KT
 12HR VT     18/1200Z 28.3N  40.4W    70 KT
 24HR VT     19/0000Z 30.2N  39.3W    60 KT
 36HR VT     19/1200Z 31.8N  38.2W    55 KT
 48HR VT     20/0000Z 33.0N  37.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     21/0000Z 35.0N  34.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     22/0000Z 39.0N  27.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     23/0000Z 46.0N  16.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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