[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 162358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON 16 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE DANIELLE IS NEAR 19.7N 38.6W AT 16/2100 UTC MOVING
NORTH NORTHWEST AT 16 KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
970 MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A SMALL EYE.  WESTERLY SHEAR IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW IN THE
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 37W-40W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 20KT. THIS
SYSTEM MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST YESTERDAY. THE GFS MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 25W-28W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.  THIS
SYSTEM SPAWNED FROM DANIELLE AND HAS CONTINUED MOVING WESTWARD.
CONVECTION IS LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE ITCZ.  THIS IS A
LOW-LATITUDE WAVE.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-9N BETWEEN 43W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE...REMNANTS OF T.S.EARL...IS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 72W S OF 18N MOVING W 20-25 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-18N
BETWEEN 69W-75W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 73W-77W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 83W S OF
17N MOVING W 20-25 KT.  POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION.
PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 84W-86W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 20N1W 12N16W 9N25W 12N35W 7N45W
10N70W 10N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N
BETWEEN 49W-60W.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN
60W-67W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO AND SUBTROPICAL ATLC W OF 70W...
SURFACE TROUGH IS SLOWLY MIGRATING WESTWARD THRU THE CENTRAL
GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N87W TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 22N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
W GULF OF MEXICO FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 92W-96W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER S FLORIDA
NEAR 25N82W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE W ATLANTIC FROM 19N-32N BETWEEN 70W-92W.  TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNAL CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 80W-83W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE FOUND IN THE CARIBBEAN.  SEE ABOVE.  IN
ADDITION SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER HAITI AND E
CUBA WITHIN 30 NM OF THE LINE 20N72W 20N77W 22N80W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC E OF 70W...
1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N54W.  RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW TO S FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W.  1022 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N30W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N67W.  CYCLONIC FLOW
IS N OF 23N BETWEEN 64W-70W.  LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 18N BETWEEN 42W-60W.  AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 28N44W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
HURRICANE DANIELLE IS THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC.  SEE ABOVE.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS ALONG
28N1W 16N30W 15N60W.  HURRICANE DANIELLE IS MOVING NNW TOWARDS
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 28N44W WHICH MAY WEAKEN THE
HURRICANE OVER TIME.

$$
FORMOSA




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