[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT44 KNHC 162027
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2004

METEOSAT-8 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A MORE
ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH A SMALL 10 NM
IRREGULAR EYE. IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THAT THE STRONGER CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA T-NUMBERS ARE 5.5...5.0...AND 5.0
RESPECTIVELY. THE ENHANCED BD CURVE INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATED A
BRIEF PERIOD...ESSENTIALLY ON A SINGLE IMAGE FROM 18Z...WHERE A
T-NUMBER OF 5.5 COULD HAVE BEEN DETERMINED.  HOWEVER...BASED ON
CURRENT IMAGERY...90 KT SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

INITIAL MOTION IS 330/16...WITH A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION TO EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODEL
GUIDANCE
INDICATES A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH BEYOND 36 HOURS WITH A RECURVE
TOWARD THE AZORES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOTION TO THE LEFT OF THE
CONSENSUS...SUGGESTING AN ABRUPT WEAKENING TREND AS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE MOVES BENEATH THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THROUGH 24 HOURS
AND BEYOND... REMAINING CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS BUT SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF THE 15Z FORECAST.

A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS
DANIELLE MOVES BENEATH THE SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A
WEAKENING THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      16/2100Z 19.7N  38.6W    90 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 21.6N  39.7W    85 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 23.7N  40.6W    80 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 26.3N  41.2W    75 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 28.5N  41.3W    70 KT
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 32.0N  40.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 34.5N  37.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     21/1800Z 37.5N  32.0W    40 KT


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