[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT45 KNHC 161420
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON AUG 16 2004

THIS MORNING...A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS UNABLE TO FIND A CLOSED CIRCULATION IN EARL.  THIS IS ALSO
THE CASE WITH A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.  SO EARL HAS DEGENERATED INTO
AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE WAVE IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 22 KT.  SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ARE IN THE 25 TO 35
KT RANGE.

THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SHOW THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE
WAVE TO RE-INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS THE SYSTEM HEADS FOR THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THIS WILL BE
THE LAST ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.  ANOTHER
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED FOR TOMORROW MORNING.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      16/1500Z TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 71.0W WITH 35 KT WINDS

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