[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT75 KNHC 160845
SPFAT5
TROPICAL STORM EARL PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST MON AUG 16 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  67.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM AST THU AUG 19 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

15.0N  74.6W      48  2  X  X 50   MUHA 230N 824W     X  X  X  5  5
15.7N  78.1W       1 35  1  X 37   MUAN 219N 850W     X  X  X 13 13
16.3N  81.2W       X  6 22  1 29   MMCZ 205N 869W     X  X  X 16 16
SKPG 125N 717W     3  X  X  X  3   MZBZ 175N 883W     X  X  X 13 13
MDCB 176N 714W     3  X  X  X  3   MGPB 157N 886W     X  X  X  8  8
MTCA 183N 738W     3  3  X  X  6   MHNJ 165N 859W     X  X  2 15 17
MKJP 179N 768W     X 24  1  X 25   MNPC 141N 834W     X  X  7  7 14
MKJS 185N 779W     X 15  6  X 21   MNBL 120N 839W     X  X  X  4  4
MWCG 193N 814W     X  X 17  4 21   SKSP 126N 817W     X  X  4  3  7
MUCM 214N 779W     X  X  1  1  2   MMFR 185N 926W     X  X  X  2  2
MUCF 221N 805W     X  X  1  4  5   MMMD 210N 897W     X  X  X  9  9
MUSN 216N 826W     X  X  2  9 11

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM TUE TO  2PM TUE
C FROM  2PM TUE TO  2AM WED
D FROM  2AM WED TO  2AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


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