[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 160536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON 16 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM EARL IS CENTERED NEAR 12.7N 65.4W AT 16/0300 UTC
MOVING W 19 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  AS HAS HAPPENED THE PREVIOUS TWO
EARLY-MORNINGS... A BURST OF CONVECTION IS NEAR OR JUST W OF THE
CENTER OF EARL.  RECON WILL BE IN THE AREA AROUND 12 UTC TO
DETERMINE MORE SPECIFICS ON THE CYCLONE.  SCATTERED MODERATE
FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 66W-69W.

HURRICANE DANIELLE IS NEAR 15.4N 33.9W AT 16/0300 UTC MOVING NW
15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.  THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE SYSTEM'S PEAK
INTENSITY BEFORE IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO ITS
NW...INCREASING SLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.  HOWEVER DANIELLE IS
MAKING ONE LAST RUN AT MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS TONIGHT WITH A
BETTER-DEFINED EYE ALONG WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN THE
EYEWALL.  NUMEROUS MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 77W S OF 19N MOVING W 20-25 KT.
POSITION BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION WITH LITTLE CLOUD SIGNATURE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N14W 13N25W 6N44W 7N58W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 48W-57W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF
10N19W.  ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 37W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO AND SUBTROPICAL ATLC W OF 75W...
UPPER FLOW HAS FLATTENED OVER THE NW GULF WITH ZONAL FLOW
PRESENT W OF 89W N OF 25N.   PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
GULF COAST W OF FLORIDA WITH RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY AIR WITH NUMEROUS ALL-TIME RECORDS SET FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THE WEATHER WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
MORE TYPICAL HEAT/HUMIDITY VALUES RETURNING TO THE NW GULF
STATES BY WED.  SURFACE TROUGH IS SLOWLY MIGRATING WESTWARD THRU
THE CENTRAL GULF FROM CRESTVIEW FLORIDA SW TO 25N91W 20N94W.
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF TROUGH AXIS... AIDED BY WEAK
UPPER TROUGHING S OF 25N ALONG 90-91W.  UPPER HIGH IS OVER
S-CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL
CONVECTION RETURNING TO THE SUNSHINE STATE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THREE FEATURES OF NOTE... FIRST FEATURE IS DEEP ELY FLOW N OF
16N W OF JAMAICA CARRYING A CIRRUS CANOPY FROM DIURNAL TSTMS
OVER THE NW GREATER ANTILLES.  FARTHER S... MID-OCEANIC TROF
RUNS FROM SE NICARAGUA THRU E JAMAICA INTO THE SE BAHAMAS.  TROF
IS FUELING TSTMS OVER NICARAGUA TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY ASSIST
MORE CONVECTION THRU THE SW CARIBBEAN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS S
OF 12N.  TO THE E... UPPER RIDGE IS POKING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN
FROM THE NE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 16N72W.  E TO SE FLOW BENEATH THE
RIDGE IS PROVIDING LIGHT SHEAR FOR EARL AT THIS TIME.  COMPUTER
MODELS GENERALLY BUILD THE RIDGE WESTWARD ALONG WITH THE STORM
BUT THEY HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO WEAKEN UPPER TROUGHS TOO QUICKLY.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LOW IS NEAR 30N70W WITH TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE SE
BAHAMAS.  INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH COOLER AIR NEAR THE TROUGH
AXIS IS ALLOWED ISOLATED WEAK/MODERATE TO FORM N OF 25N BETWEEN
65W-72W.  UPPER RIDGING ALONG WITH DRY AIR IS FROM 55W-65W...
BEING SQUISHED BY A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC.
THIS TROF IS ALONG 30N34W 23N45W 26N52W AND IS THE MAIN PLAYER
IN DANIELLE'S FORECASTED TURN TO THE N.  A FEW TSTMS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF 29N39W NEAR A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW.  THE FAR E ATLC IS
BASICALLY COVERED WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
UPPER HIGH IS NEAR 18N54W RIDGING WESTWARD INTO THE NE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND EASTWARD TO JUST N OF DANIELLE NEAR 19N36W THEN ENE
INTO NW MAURITANIA NEAR 21N16W.  VERY MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
PRESENT FROM 40W-60W S OF 20N WITH INCREASING VALUES IN THE E
ATLC WITH GENERAL ELY FLOW ALOFT.  A FEW TSTMS ARE JUST OFFSHORE
OF W AFRICA PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW WAVE OVER SENEGAL.

$$
BLAKE

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