[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT45 KNHC 160237
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004

IF NOT FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA THIS PROBABLY WOULD HAVE BEEN
THE LAST ADVISORY ON EARL...AT LEAST FOR NOW.  THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EARL THIS EVENING WAS DENIED
ACCESS TO VENEZUELAN AIRSPACE.  HAD THEY BEEN ABLE TO GET TO THE
STORM...I DOUBT THEY WOULD HAVE FOUND A CLOSED CIRCULATION...AS THE
QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES AT 22Z LOOK MORE LIKE AN OPEN WAVE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH DOUBT TO KEEP ADVISORIES GOING UNTIL THE
NEXT AIRCRAFT ARRIVES TOMORROW MORNING...AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THAT MISSION WILL BE ALLOWED TO PROCEED.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 280/19...AS QUIKSCAT AND
MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OR WAVE AXIS MAY
BE MOVING OUT SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ENHANCED MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER FLORIDA AS THE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LIFTS OUT OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP EARL...OR ITS
REMNANTS...ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK IS POSSIBLE AS EARL REACHES THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE. MODEL GUIDANCE SO FAR HAS TENDED TO BE TOO FAR NORTH
WITH EARL...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO
THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF EARL IS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN IT WAS EARLIER IN
THE DAY...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN SEEMINGLY BEING
REPLACED BY A MORE UNIFORM EASTERLY FLOW...AND THE CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY MEAGER.  THE RAPID FORWARD SPEED ALSO CONTINUES TO BE A
NEGATIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION.  THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO BE FAVORABLE...HOWEVER...AND BOTH
THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE EARL BECOMING A
HURRICANE.  THIS COULD HAPPEN EVEN IF THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES INTO AN
OPEN WAVE TOMORROW.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      16/0300Z 12.7N  65.4W    40 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 13.4N  68.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 14.3N  72.9W    45 KT
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 14.9N  76.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     18/0000Z 15.5N  80.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     19/0000Z 17.0N  85.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     20/0000Z 19.0N  89.0W    60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     21/0000Z 21.0N  93.0W    70 KT...OVER WATER


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