[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 150020
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT 14 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY IS CENTERED NEAR 36.9N 75.9W AT 15/0000
UTC...JUST EAST OF VIRGINIA BEACH VIRGINIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
26 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA FROM 37N-40N BETWEEN 74W-78W.

TROPICAL STORM EARL IS CENTERED NEAR 11.1N 55.8W AT 15/0000 UTC
OR ABOUT 300 MILES...480 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS...
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 21 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT GUSTS 45
KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. INTERESTS AROUND THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS LOCATED IN CLUSTERS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 52W-59W.

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE IS CENTERED 13.7N 28.7W AT 14/2100 UTC
MOVING WEST NORTHWEST 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 994 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT
GUSTS 65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DANIELLE IS
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY REASONABLY WARM.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 27W-31W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM
14N-16N BETWEEN 66W-70W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 19N1W 16N17W 10N32W 9N40W 12N60W 13N74W
10N80W.  IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION DUE TO THE TROPICAL STORMS...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED
ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 80W-83W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM N FLORIDA
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 30N83W 18N90W.  A 1014 MB LOW IS
ON THE COLD FRONT NEAR 27N85W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH
FLORIDA FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 79W-84W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
LONG WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W-100W. A NARROW
RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA WITHIN 200 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 34N74W 26N85W.  A SMALL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 23N88W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE
CENTER.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER MEXICO NEAR
20N100W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER MEXICO AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO S OF 26N AND W OF 93W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP EASTERLIES DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL STORM EARL RAPIDLY APPROACHING
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN
71W-80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W.  CYCLONIC FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE
IS FROM 7N-23N BETWEEN 74W-90W.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLANTIC FROM A 1030 MB HIGH
AT 40N50W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W.  A WEAK TROUGH IS OVER THE
SE BAHAMAS FROM 26N67W TO 21N74W.  A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 34N17W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N66W.  CYCLONIC FLOW
IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-75W.  ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N38W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 25N
BETWEEN 30W-45W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
DEEP EASTERLIES DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 20N.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 30N1W 17N30W 16N60W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
WITHIN 600 NM OF THE RIDGE AXIS.  BOTH TROPICAL STORMS ARE
BENEATH THIS RIDGE.

$$
FORMOSA


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