[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT43 KNHC 142048
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

SURFACE DATA AND RADAR SHOW A TIGHT CIRCULATION MOVING OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.  WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 61
KT AT 1736Z SO THE THE WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 60 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SOON THEREAFTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/26.  THE TRACK SCENARIO IS A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTENING OUT AS IT RUNS INTO A RIDGE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE
GLOBAL TRACK MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ABOUT A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS IN ADVANCE
OF THE WEAKENING TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST FOLLOWING A
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW MUCH OF A
CIRCULATION AFTER 72 HOURS SO THE FORECAST IS TERMINATED AFTER 72
HOURS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/2100Z 36.0N  77.0W    60 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 39.5N  74.5W    50 KT...NEAR THE COAST
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 42.7N  70.6W    30 KT...NEAR THE COAST
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 44.9N  66.7W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 46.5N  62.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 48.5N  52.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     18/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW


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