[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT45 KNHC 142044
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

AFTER A BRIEF INTERRUPTION IN THE DEVELOPMENT TREND THIS MORNING...
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY
WITH IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES...AND DATA T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5 FROM
BOTH SAB AND TAFB.  THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS
TIME.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR EXCEPT TO THE EAST WHERE IT
APPEARS RESTRICTED.  THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING SO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS
PREDICTED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
EXCEPT NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHERE IT IS MORE CONSERVATIVE
THAN THAT MODEL.

EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY ALONG A SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST
COURSE.  A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST TO THE
NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT.  THUS THE
FORWARD SPEED IS SLOWED BY 4-5 DAYS.  AS ALWAYS...THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST POSITIONS AT THESE EXTENDED
TIMES.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/2100Z 10.8N  54.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 12.0N  57.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 13.4N  61.3W    50 KT
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 14.7N  65.1W    60 KT
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 15.9N  68.8W    65 KT
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 18.0N  75.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     18/1800Z 19.5N  80.0W    75 KT
120HR VT     19/1800Z 21.0N  84.0W    80 KT

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