[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT44 KNHC 142039
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DANIELLE IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN.
CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BEGUN TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER AND DVORAK T
NUMBERS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES ARE NOW 3.5.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS INCREASED TO 55 KT. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR MAY INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION LATER IN THE
PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/13.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO PREDICT A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IN A
DAY OR SO.  THIS WILL ERODE THE RIDGE AND ALLOW DANIELLE TO TURN
NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT
BUT REMAINS LEFT OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE FORECAST MAY
HAVE TO BE ADJUST A LITTLE FURTHER EAST IF THE MODEL TREND TO THE
RIGHT CONTINUES.

FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/2100Z 13.7N  28.7W    55 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 14.4N  30.7W    65 KT
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 15.5N  32.8W    70 KT
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 16.8N  34.8W    75 KT
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 18.0N  36.5W    80 KT
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 20.8N  39.5W    80 KT
 96HR VT     18/1800Z 23.5N  42.0W    80 KT
120HR VT     19/1800Z 27.0N  43.5W    80 KT

$$
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net