[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT44 KNHC 141445
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

DANIELLE IS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING.  BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND DVORAK T NUMBERS
ARE NOW A CONSENSUS 3.0 FROM AFWA...SAB...AND TAFB.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT ACCORDINGLY.  SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY REASONABLY
WARM...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY.  HOWEVER A TONGUE OF
SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER IN THE VICINITY OF 18N MAY LIMIT
INTENSIFICATION LATER IN THE PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION IS ROUGHLY 280/12.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE PREDICTING A
LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH
WOULD ERODE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIELLE.  THEREFORE THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUALLY INCREASING NORTHWARD COMPONENT
OF MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE MODEL SUITE.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/1500Z 13.3N  27.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 13.8N  29.1W    50 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 14.5N  31.4W    55 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 15.6N  33.6W    60 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 16.9N  35.8W    65 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 19.0N  39.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 22.0N  42.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     19/1200Z 25.5N  45.0W    65 KT

$$
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net