[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 141214
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT 14 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE CHARLEY IS NOW 35 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON
SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32.3N 79.7W AT 14/1200 UTC MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEAST 28 MILES PER HOUR...WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 MILES PER HOUR
WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE HURRICANE IS BECOMING ELONGATED FROM NNE TO SSW WITH MOST
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE N...THOUGH THE SYSTEM STILL
DISPLAYS A WEAK EYE.  RADAR ALSO SHOWS A LOP-SIDED SYSTEM
WITH ALMOST ALL OF THE WEATHER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
HEAVY RAIN IS NOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS NEAR 9.9N 49.8W AT 14/0900 UTC
MOVING W 18 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/
WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  TSTMS HAVE BEEN FIRING NEAR AND
W OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER WITH OCCASIONAL BANDING FEATURES
TRYING TO FORM.  TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE ISSUES FOR THE
LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY.  SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 49W-54W.

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE IS NEAR 13.2N 25.9W AT 14/0900 UTC MOVING
WNW 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  TSTM CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE WITH
INCREASING BANDING FEATURES AND DANIELLE APPEARS LIKELY TO
INTENSIFY TODAY. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 25W-28W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15
KT.  WEAK WIND SHIFT NOTED WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM
12N-15N BETWEEN 60W-62.5W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS EMERGES OFF THE COAST OF MAURITANIA SW TO 7N31W THEN
10N58W.  ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 8N26W 8N36W.
CLUSTER OF STORMS IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 17N19W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN LOOKS MORE LIKE OCTOBER THAN AUGUST WITH A
DEEP TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST INTO LOUISIANA AND THE NW GULF.
ALL-TIME COLD FOR AUGUST HAS OCCURRED IN PLACES OVER THE
SOUTHERN USA BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT SITTING OVER THE N GULF
WATERS FROM TALLAHASSEE TO 22N94W.   LITTLE CHANGE IS LIKELY IN
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN UNTIL THE TROF BEGINS TO LIFT OUT
ABOUT MON AND STRONGER RIDGING IS RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
DEEP EASTERLIES ARE PRESENT IN MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH A
BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N79W.  DRY
AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENT BETWEEN 70W-83W WITH LITTLE
CONVECTION.   THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ARE MOISTENING UP WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  POCKETS OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES E OF HISPANIOLA TO THE US
VIRGIN ISLANDS.  THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE WITH INCREASING RAIN/WIND LIKELY OVERNIGHT SUN.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW BAHAMAS NEWD TO 32N74W
WITH BROAD SWLY FLOW TO THE W PUSHING HURRICANE CHARLEY  TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.  WEAK SFC RIDGING EXTENDS INTO THE
AREA ALONG 28N BUT A DEEP-LAYERED LOW NEAR 28N62W IS PRODUCING
ISOLATED  MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 55W-65W.
SECOND UPPER LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 29N41W WITH LITTLE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION.  ELSEWHERE...A STRONG UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
13N41W WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROF IS ALONG THE CANARY ISLANDS.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
AFTER THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE YEAR.... THE EARLIEST
SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE SINCE 1955...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
NEAR 21N41W OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC.  MAJORITY OF THE TROPICAL
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG ELY FLOW AND LOW VALUES OF
VERTICAL SHEAR THOUGH THERE IS RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN DANIELLE/TD 5.  THE RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT
FARTHER S TO 18N/19N OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS A TROUGH DIGS
AHEAD OF DANIELLE... POSSIBLY PROVIDING SHEAR BEYOND 36 HOURS.

$$
BLAKE

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