[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT45 KNHC 140858
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF TD FIVE LOOKS VERY GOOD BUT THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE AT 2.0 AND 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KTS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY... OTHER THAN THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION...ALL FACTORS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT FOR MAKING
THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL 280/18.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY CURRENT SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION IS THEREFORE INDICATED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LARGELY UPDATES THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONCENSUS.

WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
LATER TODAY.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/0900Z  9.8N  49.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 10.7N  52.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 12.0N  56.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 13.6N  59.9W    45 KT
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 14.8N  63.9W    55 KT
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 16.7N  71.1W    65 KT
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 18.6N  76.9W    75 KT
120HR VT     19/0600Z 20.0N  81.4W    80 KT


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