[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT75 KNHC 140857
SPFAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT AUG 14 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE  9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  49.8 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM AST TUE AUG 17 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

12.0N  56.0W      52  2  X  X 54   TNCM 181N 631W     X  X 12  4 16
13.6N  59.9W       X 37  2  X 39   TISX 177N 648W     X  X 12 10 22
14.8N  63.9W       X  1 27  2 30   TIST 183N 650W     X  X  7 12 19
SKPG 125N 717W     X  X  X  4  4   TJPS 180N 666W     X  X  4 18 22
TNCC 122N 690W     X  X  X  8  8   MDSD 185N 697W     X  X  X 21 21
SVMG 110N 640W     X  X  3  2  5   MDCB 176N 714W     X  X  X 21 21
TTPP 106N 614W     X  3  1  X  4   MTPP 186N 724W     X  X  X 18 18
TTPT 112N 608W     X  8  3  1 12   MTCA 183N 738W     X  X  X 13 13
TGPY 120N 618W     X  9  9  X 18   MKJP 179N 768W     X  X  X  2  2
TBPB 131N 595W     1 37  1  X 39   MUGM 200N 751W     X  X  X  7  7
TVSV 131N 612W     X 23  8  X 31   TJSJ 184N 661W     X  X  4 16 20
TLPL 138N 610W     X 27  8  X 35   MDPP 198N 707W     X  X  X 17 17
TFFF 146N 610W     X 25 11  X 36   MBJT 215N 712W     X  X  X 10 10
TDPR 153N 614W     X 15 18  X 33   MYMM 224N 730W     X  X  X  6  6
80400 157N 636W    X  1 27  2 30   ST CROIX VI        X  X 12 10 22
TFFR 163N 615W     X  6 21  X 27   ST THOMAS VI       X  X  7 12 19
TAPA 171N 618W     X  2 18  1 21   SAN JUAN PR        X  X  4 16 20
TKPK 173N 627W     X  X 19  2 21   PONCE PR           X  X  4 18 22

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM SUN TO  2PM SUN
C FROM  2PM SUN TO  2AM MON
D FROM  2AM MON TO  2AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER JARVINEN


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