[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT45 KNHC 140235
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING.  A
QUIKSCAT PASS AT 21Z...AS WELL AS DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...SUGGEST
THAT THE WINDS ARE PERHAPS A LITTLE LOWER THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED.
NEVERTHELESS...THE SYSTEM HAS A GOOD OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND...OTHER
THAN THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION...ALL FACTORS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING.  BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE BRING THE
DEPRESSION TO ABOUT 90 KT OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  I HAVE ELECTED
TO GO A LITTLE BELOW THIS GUIDANCE BASED ON THE POOR SATELLITE AND
QUIKSCAT PRESENTATION AND THE RAPID INITIAL MOTION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED INITIAL MOTION IS 280/18.  THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY CURRENT SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION IS THEREFORE
INDICATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
LARGELY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFDL.

WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
EARLY SATURDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/0300Z  9.4N  48.3W    25 KT
 12HR VT     14/1200Z 10.0N  51.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     15/0000Z 11.0N  54.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     15/1200Z 12.1N  58.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     16/0000Z 13.2N  61.3W    55 KT
 72HR VT     17/0000Z 15.0N  67.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     18/0000Z 17.0N  73.0W    75 KT
120HR VT     19/0000Z 20.0N  78.5W    80 KT


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