[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT44 KNHC 140232
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

THE DEPRESSION IS SHOWING IMPROVED ORGANIZATION...WITH A MARKED
INCREASE IN BOTH BANDING AND CONVECTIVE VIGOR NEAR THE CENTER OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB
AT 0Z WERE T2.5...AND SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM.

DANIELLE IS SOUTHEAST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH GLOBAL MODELS
WEAKEN SHARPLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST FROM ITS PRESENT
WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OUTLIER FROM THIS
SCENARIO IS THE NOGAPS...WHICH WEAKENS THE CYCLONE AND TAKES ITS
REMNANTS WESTWARD. GIVEN THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND THIS
ALTERNATIVE HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL TO THE SOUTH OF
MOST OF GUIDANCE.

THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW AND WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
REASONABLY WARM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK TAKES DANIELLE OVER SUB 27C WATER AFTER THAT HOWEVER.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER...SLIGHTLY BELOW
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE NORTHWARD TRACK ADJUSTMENT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/0300Z 12.7N  24.8W    35 KT
 12HR VT     14/1200Z 13.0N  26.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     15/0000Z 13.7N  29.1W    45 KT
 36HR VT     15/1200Z 14.3N  31.6W    50 KT
 48HR VT     16/0000Z 15.0N  34.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     17/0000Z 17.0N  38.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     18/0000Z 19.0N  42.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     19/0000Z 22.0N  46.0W    55 KT


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