[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT43 KNHC 132110
TCDAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

THE CENTER OF CHARLEY HAS MOVED INLAND NEAR CHARLOTTE HARBOR
FLORIDA.  AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE AT LEAST 125 KT AT LANDFALL AND THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 941 MB.  THE CLOSED EYEWALL HAD SHRUNK TO A
FIVE MILE DIAMETER.  A FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEED OF 148 KNOTS
CORRESPONDS TO A SURFACE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 130 KT.  IT
IS EXPECTED THAT THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY OVER LAND.

AN UNOFFICIAL WIND GUST TO 127 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED NEAR PUNTA
GORDA FLORIDA ALONG WITH A 943.6 MB SURFACE PRESSURE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/19.  THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO
IS UNCHANGED WITH AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED GLOBAL MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS WHICH IS SOMEWHAT TO
THE EAST OF THE OTHER MODELS.

THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE WHEN THE CENTER
MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS AS
NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW HURRICANE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      13/2100Z 26.9N  82.2W   120 KT
 12HR VT     14/0600Z 29.7N  81.1W    75 KT...OVER WATER
 24HR VT     14/1800Z 33.9N  79.0W    60 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     15/0600Z 38.5N  76.3W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     15/1800Z 43.5N  72.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     16/1800Z 47.5N  66.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     17/1800Z 49.5N  60.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     18/1800Z...INLAND


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